Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
