Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
